Oxfordshire housing-led population forecasts August 2024 update (2022-2031)
![Graph of Oxfordshire County Council 2022-based housing-led population projections](https://insight.oxfordshire.gov.uk/cms/sites/oxfordshireinsight/files/styles/main_image/public/main-images/2022%20Population%20forecasts%20for%20web%20page.png?itok=4P2S-Acb)
Introduction
Oxfordshire County Council carries out an annual update to housing-led population forecasts to support planning for school places, social care and other services. These differ from the population projections provided by ONS in that they:
- provide estimates of population change at a small area level (Middle Layer Super Output Areas, 87 in Oxfordshire).
- take into account the predicted increase in housing across Oxfordshire from planned district housing trajectories as of January 2024.
It is important to note that the rate of housebuilding is an input to the model and the outputs reflect the expected population if that level of housebuilding takes place. The forecasts, therefore, are not indicative of housing need, and should not be used or interpreted as such.
What the forecasts show
The August 2024 update of the Oxfordshire County Council housing-led forecasts predict a total population in Oxfordshire of 806,900 by 2031, a growth of 68,600 (+9%). Over the same period the ONS projections show an increase of +3% but the ONS MYE between 2013 to 2022 saw a +10% increase. The forecast population is lower than last year’s update in large part due to new housing being delayed by a year but also updates to birth and migration rate assumptions.
Differences are particularly apparent for the younger and working age groups. For older people aged 65 and over, the predicted growth is similar. Under 18s peak in 2027 and then have a small decline.
Resources
Link to the latest ONS 2018-based population projections
If you have questions, please email us at JSNA@oxfordshire.gov.uk