Future population

There are two alternative sources of data for the future change in population:

Oxfordshire County Council’s housing-led forecasts which incorporate district council plans for house building
ONS projections based on past trends.

EXPLORE housing-led forecasts using our interactive dashboard

DOWNLOAD a bitesize report and the dataset

JSNA Bitesize on future population growth (August 2024)
Excel spreadsheet with OCC housing-led forecasts by local authority district and MSOA (including methodology, August 2024)

FURTHER INFORMATION is available from

Our Guide to Geography with information on geographical areas used for publishing statistics
ONS population estimates and projections for districts and small areas on nomis
ONS 2018-based projections (based on past trends) released March 2020

The below table summarises when you would use the two different models

	ONS Projections	Oxfordshire County Council Forecasts
Geographies available	Districts, counties and national	Oxfordshire MSOAs (small areas), districts and county
Time period	25 years	10 years (limited by new housing feed)
New housing	Implicitly included via historical migration figures, which partly include house-building	Explicitly includes population change arising from new house building in the Local Plans
Base Population	Latest ONS mid-year estimate (MYE)	Latest ONS mid-year estimate (MYE)
Uses	To compare with areas outside Oxfordshire. For returns to central government where standardized figures are required.	To understand local growth and service needs. To examine population change at smaller areas (MSOAs).

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