Future population

Graph of population trend for 2011 to 2031

There are two alternative sources of data for the future change in population:

  1. Oxfordshire County Council’s housing-led forecasts which incorporate district council plans for house building
  2. ONS projections based on past trends.

See summary of the latest Oxfordshire housing-led forecasts (March 2023)

EXPLORE housing-led forecasts using our interactive dashboard

DOWNLOAD a bitesize report and the dataset

FURTHER INFORMATION is available from

  • Our Guide to Geography with information on geographical areas used for publishing statistics
  • ONS population estimates and projections for districts and small areas on nomis
  • ONS 2018-based projections (based on past trends) released March 2020

The below table summarises when you would use the two different models


ONS Projections

Oxfordshire County Council Forecasts

Geographies available

Districts, counties and national

Oxfordshire MSOAs (small areas), districts and county

Time period

25 years

10 years (limited by new housing feed)

New housing

Implicitly included via historical migration figures, which partly include house-building

Explicitly includes population change arising from new house building in the Local Plans

Base Population

Latest ONS mid-year estimate (MYE)

Latest ONS mid-year estimate (MYE) in most cases.

For Oxford residents in their 20s to early 40s, the base population is calculated as a hybrid of the MYE and the ONS admin-based population estimate (ABPE).


To compare with areas outside Oxfordshire.

For returns to central government where standardized figures are required.

To understand local growth and service needs.

To examine population change at smaller areas (MSOAs).