Introduction

Oxfordshire County Council carries out an annual update to housing-led population forecasts to support planning for school places, social care and other services.  These differ from the population projections provided by ONS in that they:

• provide estimates of population change at a small area level (Middle Layer Super Output Areas, 86 in Oxfordshire);
• take into account the predicted increase in housing across Oxfordshire.

Please note that this set of interim forecasts have been created at a time of greater than usual uncertainty around the economy and housing.  They contain a modelled county-wide adjustment relative to planned district housing trajectories as of 31 March 2020, to account for the potential impact of Covid on housebuilding and they exclude sites in draft plans at that date.

Further modelling work is underway on the basis of revised population assumptions (migration, fertility, mortality) and the latest local intelligence on planned housing growth and housing mix.  An update to these interim forecasts will be published as soon as possible (publication date to be confirmed).

It is important to note that the rate of housebuilding is an input to the model and the outputs reflect the expected population if that level of housebuilding takes place. The forecasts, therefore, are not indicative of housing need, and should not be used or interpreted as such.

What the forecasts show

The Oxfordshire County Council interim housing-led forecasts predict a total population in Oxfordshire of 801,600 by 2028, a growth of 110,300 (+16%).   Over the same period the ONS projections show an increase of +5%.

Differences are particularly apparent for the younger and working age groups.  For older people aged 65 and over, the predicted growth is similar.

Resources

Explore the forecasts using our interactive dashboard

Download the excel pack with forecasts for districts (single year of age) and MSOAs (5 year age bands)

Download the summary JSNA bitesize report showing the trend for Oxfordshire, districts and main settlements

Link to the latest ONS 2018-based population projections

If you have questions please email us JSNA@oxfordshire.gov.uk  

22nd September 2020