New Oxfordshire housing-led population forecasts 2017 to 2027

Oxfordshire County Council's housing-led population forecasts indicate the future size and age structure of the population in Oxfordshire, district council areas and small areas (Middle Layer Super Output Areas, MSOAs) 2017 to 2027.

These short term, small area forecasts take into account the predicted increase in housing across Oxfordshire and show a higher rate of population growth than the Office for National Statistics (ONS) population projections, particularly for the younger and working age populations.  For older people the forecast growth is similar to the ONS projections.

This 2019 update is based on:

  • Actual and forecast housing completions provided by District Councils as of March 2019;
  • Births, deaths and migration data from Office for National Statistics (ONS);
  • ONS data on future fertility rates and future mortality rates;
  • Population profile in the first year (starting population) by district, age and sex from the 2017 ONS mid-year population estimate, with the exception of the age range 21-34 for Oxford city where the ONS SPD is used (a more accurate method for capturing student flows).

Explore the forecasts using our interactive dashboards

Download the excel pack with forecasts for districts (single year of age) and MSOAs (5 year age bands)

Download the summary JSNA bitesize report showing the trend for Oxfordshire, districts and main settlements

Reference a map showing the boundaries of the 86 MSOAs in Oxfordshire

Link to the latest ONS 2016-based population projections

If you have questions please email us observatory@oxfordshire.gov.uk  

Author: 
Margaret.Melling
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