New 2016-based housing-led forecasts for districts

Revised forecasts released 10th April 2018

Oxfordshire County Council's housing-led population forecasts (2016 to 2037, persons, males and females) for districts are available for 5-year age bands and single year of age.

This revised set replaces the forecasts originally released 9 March 2018 and has corrected errors in the way that some of the source data was copied into the model.
The difference between the March and April release results is relatively small. 
Oxfordshire's total population by 2031 from the previous March release was 874,900 and is now 874,400, a difference of 500.

The main assumptions used in the OCC population model are:

  • Actual and forecast housing completions provided by District Councils as of January 2018
  • Births, deaths and migration data from Office for National Statistics (ONS)
  • ONS data on future fertility rates
  • Population profile in the first year (starting population) by district, age and sex from the 2016 ONS mid-year population estimate as of July 2017, with the exception of the age range 20-30 where 2016 SPD_v2 is used as this has a more accurate method for capturing student flows.

Note that the ONS revision to the 2016 mid year estimates released March 2018, have not been used in these forecasts.  Oxfordshire County Council, Oxford City Council and other local authorities are in discussion with ONS about the methodology used to create this latest set of estimates.